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二季度LED产业分析与投资策略
(2012/8/6 16:57:14)
 LED 照明应用的大规模普及。LED 的技术驱动体现在其发光效率持续提升目前已全面超越传统光源,此外,流明成本也持续下降,每年平均下降28%,这导致新的需求不断涌现,目前正在开启的是照明应用。LED 照明临界点因照明时长、电费和产品价格而变化,国内室内照明领域每天点亮4 小时以上场合已具备经济性,这将涵盖大部分的商业、工厂、写字楼照明,此外,户外照明也正在启动。

 

  2012 年将是LED 照明普及的关键年,海量市场正在开启。2012年是全球白炽灯禁用的关键年,高端需求将直接转化为LED 球泡、筒灯的需求;国内照明补贴政策已经启动,地方扶持政策也纷纷出台,营造良好的需求氛围;2012 年初以来,LED 芯片的价格下跌趋势减缓后观望者开始出手购置LED 产品,外围经济复苏后,来自海外的照明需求开始涌现。根据高工LED 预测,国内LED 室内照明市场2012-13 年将分别增长65%和59%,国内LED 户外功能照明市场2012-13 年将分别增长50%和31%(路灯与隧道灯增长更快)。

 

  产能相对过剩,关注中下游领域。LED 产业呈现整体产能过剩,其中外延芯片和蓝宝石尤其严重。外延领域2011年净增机台数为476 台,总量达到803 台,预估2011 年底机台开动率约50%。应用和封装的产能过剩预计在2012年上半年将逐渐缓解,并呈现分化,优势公司的照明类封装产能将相对紧张;外延芯片的产能过剩预计在2012年底缓解。

 

  产业格局变化,关注有先发优势厂商和有壁垒的环节。芯片领域国内整体处于无差异竞争阶段,主要依靠价格和规模竞争;封装领域进入壁垒最低,目前照明产能相对不足,2012 对有经验的厂商而言,目前是快速扩张的最佳时机,是建立规模壁垒和进入壁垒的关键时期,值得关注的是鸿利光电;应用的核心在于客户渠道和对综合加工能力和供应链管理的能力,传统照明厂商(尤其是节能灯厂商)具有优势,而LED 厂商则进入更早,有一定的生产经验和品牌的积累,值得关注的是阳光照明和勤上光电。

 

  推荐组合:鸿利光电、阳光照明、勤上光电。鸿利光电是国内综合技术能力最强的LED 照明芯片封装企业,供不应求,对于产能增长方面有积极规划,此外公司还积极往LED 照明应用扩张,并启动国内销售渠道建设计划。阳光照明是传统照明公司转型LED 最积极的公司,其在节能灯方面积累的经验对于其开展LED 业务也有帮助,2012年该公司在争取国际照明大厂代工订单方面将有作为。勤上光电长期以来重视品牌的建立,在路灯应用技术和渠道方面有明显优势,近期积极布局室内照明的渠道。

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