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stores blog stores About iwccousteau.top blog
业内人士认为,经过前两年的爆炸性发展,LED全产业链已呈现产能过剩趋势,反映在相关上市公司财务报表上,就是毛利率下降,业绩增速滑坡。然而,耐人寻味的是,新股大量破发的同时,众多led企业的IPO热情却丝毫没有减弱。利亚德、远方光电、聚飞光电、长方照明、一大批LED新股接连过会陆续进入招股阶段。
扎堆上市的LED新股,给投资者带来的究竟是馅饼还是陷阱?
远方光电:业绩滑坡前“卖”股权
远方光电主营LED检测设备制造,目前A股市场挂牌上市公司中,并没有可比较企业。数据显示,远方光电目前占据国内LED检测设备市场份额的半壁江山。
在招股说明书中,远方光电对LED产业的前景描述极尽溢美之词,同时透露国内LED产业的跃进式发展是支撑公司业绩快速提升的基础。然而,2011年国际LED产品价格出现暴跌,产业环境出现恶化,众多行业巨头业绩滑坡,由此可能对远方光电产生的影响,公司却没有丝毫论述。
来自券商的多份研究报告显示,经过2010年、2011年的快速发展,国内LED产业链条已呈现过剩趋势。投资者不禁质疑,海外产业链条的动荡难道不会传导到远方光电身上?
产能能否消化
2010年远方光电营收水平、盈利水平同比放大超过一倍。然而,2011年公司业绩增幅已难再保持强劲势头,2011年前三季度公司营业收入为1.4亿元,仅较2010年业绩出现微幅放大。
远方光电业绩增幅下降的背后,国际LED产品市场已经呈现出一片凄风冷雨。
一位券商行业分析师表示,“目前全国各地在建的超大型LED项目有超过50个,总投资规模超过2000亿元。虽然各地地方政府推出税收优惠、政策补贴的各种措施大力推动LED项目,但国际LED产品价格暴跌,对各企业的投资冲动造成了抑制。很多项目虽然动辄投资30亿~40亿元,但实际进度缓慢,有些项目甚至进入停滞状态。”
“LED检测设备行业,属于产业链条中的交叉子行业,对行业景气度变化尤其敏感。”上述分析师认为,2010年我国大量新建led芯片生产线、封装生产线竣工投产,直接拉动了相关检测设备的需求。未来,如果国际LED产品价格不能快速提升,国内LED相关生产线的开建速度将进一步放缓,传导到远方光电上,其市场不排除出现萎缩的可能。
实际上,根据招股说明书的提示,远方光电IPO资金投向扩建LED检测设备产能,扩建完成后新增产能将是现在产能的1.5倍。
LED行业依靠高投资实现高增长,一旦投资降温,产业环境转冷,远方光电IPO扩建的成倍放大的产能,又能否被市场所消化?
从卖产品到“卖”股权
与大多数因为资金匮乏,进行股权融资的企业相比,远方光电貌似不差钱。
根据招股说明书披露的数据,截至2011年9月30日,远方光电银行存款高达1.14亿元。2010年12月31日公司存款更是高达1.35亿元,占到当年总资产比例高达76%。
按照本次IPO招股的预计目标,1500套LED检测设备扩建项目拟投入1.15亿元,研发中心投入4800万元,销售网络投入1500万元。
公司银行存款高达1.14亿元,巧合的是LED检测设备扩建项目刚好相当。自有资金完全可以解决扩产的资金需求,远方光电却急于上市融资,让业内大呼看不懂。
业内人士认为,现在实业投资日趋艰难,而LED行业又处于行业集体下滑的拐点,“卖”股权显然比卖产品更能“赚钱”。作为一家典型家族式企业,股票IPO融资后巨大的财富增值,似乎更是公司实际控制人潘建根、孟欣夫妇垂涎的“肥肉”。目前潘氏夫妇通过直接和间接持有远方光电股份合计超过70%,预计IPO完成仍将以60%的股权对公司实现绝对控股。
远方光电预计筹资1.7亿元,总计发行股份1500万股,股票上市股价将超过20元,潘氏家族的财富通过二级市场的放大将达到百亿元水平。
建设项目不差钱,却转投股市忙圈钱。远方光电进入股市的“诚意”让不少二级市场投资者也感到了不安。