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2012年LED产业投资建议
(2012/8/6 16:57:17)

2011年中国LED产业规划投资达1945亿,上游蓝宝石、外延芯片投资最为火热,下游应用端投入不够,在技术和渠道上没有太多投入,使得LED推广缓慢,需求不如预期,这也直接导致了上游产能的阶段性过剩。

针对目前LED产业投资现状,高工LED产业研究所预测:

1. 2012年会有部分2011年规划的LED项目被迫退出或者搁置,特别是LED蓝宝石外延项目,那些号称投资上百亿的项目往往是最先退出或搁置的。

2. 大多数项目启动脚步将会放缓,上游项目尤其明显;

3. 2012年上游新增项目将会大幅减少,LED投资热将会告一段落;
LED未来市场依然一片光明,依然诱人,因此投资的脚步也不会停下。2012年依然会有各路资金进入LED产业,对这些要进入或者扩张的LED投资者作出以下几点建议:

1. 上游产业。对于欲新进者,如果没有强硬的技术做支撑,建议不要去涉足这趟浑水,无论是蓝宝石或是外延芯片,高工相信多数投资者没有强硬的技术做支撑,因此建议不要再进入LED上游产业;对于欲扩张者,建议先做好充分的市场调查后再作决定,看看是投资在产能的扩张上还是技术的研发上,上游从业者应先加强自身技术的研发,在研发上应该更多的投入。

2. 中游产业。建议新进者做好充分的市场调查,看看进入后是否有自己立足之地;建议从业者加强技术的研发,在细分领域做大做强,切勿盲目扩张。封装技术还有很大的提升空间,封装工艺直接影响到照明效果。led照明是未来最被看好的应用领域,目前LED照明推广困难很大的一个原因是封装技术达不到照明性能的要求,因此为了打开下游市场,建议中游产业一定要加大研发力度,投入上以研发为主。

3. 下游产业。下游市场一旦打开,上游产能过剩问题也就迎刃而解。应用端进入门槛相对较低,进出相对容易,风险相对较小,而且国家将会出台政策加大对下游应用端的补贴。因此建议2012年可以加大对下游的投资,重点应该是在产品的研发以及销售渠道的建设上。

现阶段LED产业投资严重失调,上游投资过火,大量资金流进了上游。不排除某些投资者被“上游利润占整个产业链的70%”这个错误观点误导。因此急需下游产业来消化,而作为中间环节的封装,技术成熟与否是能否打开下游市场的关键。LED上中下游相辅相成,相互影响,各产业链必须平衡发展。因此无论是从投资者自身利益出发,还是为了中国LED产业的健康发展,希望2012年中国LED产业理性投资,妥善投资。
 

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