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通用照明将成为LED发展主力
报告中估计，2012年封装LED收入将达到114亿美元，2018年达到顶峰171亿美元。目前，显示器背光应用与通用照明应用将成为增长的“双驾马车”，但是随着LED在照明领域的渗透，照明应用将成为主要驱动力。预计2014年将出现LED业务的第三轮增长，届时，50%以上的封装LED将被用于通用照明。从产量看，LED面积将从2012年的225亿平方毫米增长至2018年的800亿平方毫米，这将促使衬底产量从2011年的800万片(2英寸)增长至2018年3950万片(2英寸)，复合年增长率为26%。
三年间GaN LED产能扩大20倍 降低成本是重点
在过去的三年里，中国购买氮化镓MOCVD反应器产能增长了20倍。尤以2010年和2011年的增长最为迅猛，2012年第一季度GaN LED产能是2009年第四季度20倍。
2011年，LED在电视背光应用领域不尽如人意，一方面光效提高减少了背光所需LED数量，另一方面市场迎来了主要来自亚洲的一些新入者，致使产能过剩并导致激烈的价格战。去年全年封装LED的销售量比预期降低了30%。
要想实现LED在通用照明领域的大规模渗透，封装LED每流明成本仍需下降10倍。这可以通过提高生产效率、提升性能、增大外延尺寸、优化封装和灯具设计等方法来实现。
如何抓住增值机会
Yole Développement公司高级分析师Eric Virey表示：“就技术成熟度和LED性能而言，多数新兴的中国外延片和芯片制造企业仍然远远落后。”
新的商业模式非常必要，可以抓住LED照明领域的增值机会。固态照明的长寿命特性将会大大改变照明市场。LED大幅延长更换周期，从而对替代市场造成巨大的影响，促使照明行业寻求新的利润点，如智能照明以及其它照明解决方案。
此外，垂直整合也会是一个趋势。电子商务和建立新的分销商是目前很多企业采取的方法，但是获取分销渠道并非易事。LED照明应该寻求和传统照明的良好融合。